Detroit Lions: A Lesson Regarding Analytics vs. Conventional Football

When the young Detroit Lions were heading into the locker room with a 24-7 advantage at halftime, many fans across America were curious to see how things would unfold in the second half. Unfortunately, the Lions’ dubious history since the AFL/NFL Merger did not engender much confidence that the Vince Lombardi Trophy-deprived franchise could prevent a San Francisco 49ers forthcoming onslaught, especially since the Lions had not won a championship in any form since the sock hop era.

             Predictably, the 49ers emerged from the locker room to receive the ball for the first possession in the second half with all the intensity of wild dogs searching for food. Their appetite was satiated with a touchdown in the opening drive with 9-plays in 3:58. On the ensuing drive, the Lions did advance the ball to the San Francisco 28-yard line, but coach Dan Campbell opted to go for it on fourth down instead of attempting a field goal. Henceforth, the momentum shifted as the 49ers seemingly scored at will. 

            Of course, the Lions faithful will defend Campbell’s decision for aggressive play calling throughout the season saying, “This devil-may-care style of play got us here,” but were those decisions prudent? Late in the regular season, Campbell made similar moves against the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington, Texas, ending in controversy and retrospection. Some observers went as far as to claim that the Lions were over-reliant on the modern usage of analytics in professional football instead of conventional wisdom.  

           In reality, Campbell may have believed that the favored 49ers would continue to score in the friendly confines of Levi’s Stadium on his defensive unit that did not remind anyone of the 1985 Chicago Bears. Therefore, the Lions went for it on fourth down, and a series of inaccurate passes, incompletions, and a fumble were the results. The Detroit Lions will have an entire offseason to evaluate these sequences and plan accordingly for the future.  

           Nevertheless, the National Football League’s governance was probably not too disappointed with the result of the San Francisco 49ers defeating the Detroit Lions 34-31 in the National Football Conference Championship Game, leading to a rematch of the 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII from Paradise, Nevada. The NFL’s broadcast partners breathed a sigh of relief to have an opportunity to see if the 49ers can join the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots for a sixth league championship instead of watching the Lions hold on for dear life against an experienced Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. 

Sunday, January 28, 2024